politics

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent presidential candidate, recently announced the suspension of his campaign and endorsed former President Donald Trump, despite remaining on the ballot in non-competitive states. Although this endorsement has generated headlines, its impact on the presidential race is expected to be minimal, based on polling data and demographic analysis.

A Limited Effect on the Race

Kennedy’s campaign never gained significant traction, and his support dwindled after President Joe Biden stepped out of the race, leaving Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee. Polls indicate that Kennedy’s endorsement of Trump is unlikely to sway the election substantially. Kennedy consistently polled around 5 percent, drawing voters from both Trump and Harris. His support came from a mix of traditionally Democratic and Republican demographics, making his endorsement only marginally beneficial to Trump, particularly among white, male, and older voters.

Polling Insights

To understand where Kennedy’s supporters might go, a straightforward method is to compare polling averages with and without Kennedy as an option. Analysis from polling data shows that when Kennedy is included, Harris’s support is typically 1.3 percentage points lower, and Trump’s support is 1.5 points lower compared to two-way polls. This suggests that Kennedy’s presence slightly favored Harris by drawing more potential Trump voters, but the overall impact on the race is negligible—about the same as daily fluctuations in polling results.

Demographic Shifts

A deeper dive into the polling data at the demographic level reveals some patterns. Without Kennedy in the race, Harris sees a rise in support among Asian, Black, and Hispanic voters, as well as among young voters and nonwhite individuals without college degrees. Conversely, Trump consolidates more support among men, white voters, rural populations, and voters over 30. This demographic realignment means Trump stands to gain more from Kennedy’s endorsement among groups already inclined to support him.

A Rebalancing of Partisan Lines

The most significant trend following Kennedy’s exit is the repolarization of strongly partisan groups. Harris gains ground among traditionally Democratic demographics, while Trump strengthens his hold on key Republican groups. However, for more swing-oriented voters—such as suburbanites, college-educated nonwhites, and women—the absence of Kennedy has little impact on their voting intentions.

A Strategic, Yet Symbolic Endorsement

While Kennedy’s endorsement of Trump might seem like a significant development, it is more symbolic than substantial. Kennedy’s campaign had little chance of success, and his withdrawal is unlikely to change the overall dynamics of the race. Trump's campaign might benefit slightly, particularly in battleground states, but the broader implications of Kennedy's exit are limited.

Kennedy's decision to stay on the ballot in non-competitive states, while endorsing Trump, reflects an attempt to remain relevant in the political conversation. However, the likelihood of Kennedy influencing the election outcome significantly is low. His endorsement of Trump may offer a small boost, but it is unlikely to alter the course of the 2024 presidential race in any meaningful way.